Banking
Short-term bank merger benefits unlikely, estimates show
The benefits of a possible tie-up between two of the top Polish banks, Pekao and Bank BPH, a by product of the mega-merger between Italy?s UniCredito and German HVB group, are unlikely to materialize anytime soon, equity analysts say. In the case of some previous deals, it took up to seven years by one estimate for banking profits to return to pre-merger levels. BPH?s own track record is not that good. After adjusting for inflation, the bank is still earning much less than its two component parts, BPH and PBK, four years after the two banks merger into one.
?Actually, bank mergers usually look best on paper?, one analyst says noting that combining BPH with Pekao might make sense as a preventive move against market share loss as a result of other potential mergers. Another analyst expects the merger to produce annual synergies totaling 580 million zloty over time. The move would have increased combined market value of the two banks by as much as 2 billion dollars from around $12.1 billion today.
Politics